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Transformations and order statistics

Push a random variable through a function: use the CDF method when you can, the Jacobian when you must, and treat maxima and minima as CDF products.

The formulas

CDF method

then differentiate

Monotone transform
Maximum of n iid
Minimum of n iid
Convolution

Where it comes from

  1. The CDF method works because can always be rewritten as a probability about when is invertible on the relevant region.
  2. Differentiating that identity produces the Jacobian factor — the absolute derivative of the inverse.
  3. The maximum is below exactly when ALL of them are, so the CDFs multiply; the minimum is above exactly when all of them are, so the SURVIVAL functions multiply.

Worked example

Let $U$ be uniform on (0,1) and $Y = -2\ln U$. Find $P(Y > 3)$.

  1. .
  2. The inequality flipped when dividing by — the step most often missed.
  3. because is standard uniform.
  4. . In fact is exponential with mean 2.

Answer: 0.2231

This answer is recomputed from the site’s own interest-theory and probability functions every time the test suite runs, so the page and the mathematics cannot drift apart.

Memory hooks

  • Always go through the CDF. The density method is a shortcut that only works for monotone g.
  • Max ⇒ multiply CDFs. Min ⇒ multiply survival functions. Nothing else to remember.

Traps

  • Forgetting the absolute value on the Jacobian for a decreasing transform.
  • Failing to flip the inequality when dividing by a negative number.

Related

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