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Exponential distribution
The waiting time until the next event in a Poisson process; a memoryless lifetime.
Parameters and support
- rate — events per unit time —
- Support
The formulas
- f(x)
- F(x)
The survival function S(x) = e^(−λx) is the form worth memorising — most questions ask for a tail.
- Mean
- Variance
- MGF
Where the moments come from
- , so and .
- .
- , so .
- Memorylessness follows straight from .
- The exponential is Gamma(, ); a sum of independent Exponential() is Gamma(, ).
Worked example
A machine's time to failure is exponential with mean 5 years. Given it has survived 3 years, find the probability it survives at least 5 more.
- Mean 5 means .
- By memorylessness the 3 years already survived are irrelevant: .
- .
- .
Answer: 0.3679
The mean, variance, CDF and moment generating function above are re-derived numerically from this distribution’s own density on every test run — summed over the support for a discrete distribution, integrated by quadrature for a continuous one — and compared with the closed forms printed here. A typo on this page fails the build.
Traps
- Using λ where the mean θ = 1/λ belongs. Read whether the question gives a RATE or a MEAN.
- Doing the conditional probability the long way when memorylessness collapses it in one line.
- Confusing the exponential (a waiting time) with the Poisson (a count).
Related
Drill this: the Exam P question bank has original questions on this distribution, and the recall trainer builds its prompts from exactly the formulas above.