Exam PContinuousFree to read

Exponential distribution

The waiting time until the next event in a Poisson process; a memoryless lifetime.

Parameters and support

rate — events per unit time
Support

The formulas

f(x)
F(x)

The survival function S(x) = e^(−λx) is the form worth memorising — most questions ask for a tail.

Mean
Variance
MGF
Memory hook. Standard deviation equals the mean. Memorylessness means P(X > s + t | X > s) = P(X > t): a used component is as good as new.

Where the moments come from

  1. , so and .
  2. .
  3. , so .
  4. Memorylessness follows straight from .
  5. The exponential is Gamma(, ); a sum of independent Exponential() is Gamma(, ).

Worked example

A machine's time to failure is exponential with mean 5 years. Given it has survived 3 years, find the probability it survives at least 5 more.

  1. Mean 5 means .
  2. By memorylessness the 3 years already survived are irrelevant: .
  3. .
  4. .

Answer: 0.3679

The mean, variance, CDF and moment generating function above are re-derived numerically from this distribution’s own density on every test run — summed over the support for a discrete distribution, integrated by quadrature for a continuous one — and compared with the closed forms printed here. A typo on this page fails the build.

Traps

  • Using λ where the mean θ = 1/λ belongs. Read whether the question gives a RATE or a MEAN.
  • Doing the conditional probability the long way when memorylessness collapses it in one line.
  • Confusing the exponential (a waiting time) with the Poisson (a count).

Related

Drill this: the Exam P question bank has original questions on this distribution, and the recall trainer builds its prompts from exactly the formulas above.